Peter Hanseler – Thoughts in Dubai

A good three weeks ago, on my way to Switzerland, I stopped in Dubai and talked with my friend and co-author Simon Hunt and other interesting people about the worrying developments in the geopolitical situation. I was concerned about the American deployment of troops in the Persian Gulf, but hoped that war would not break out. A war that would only happen if the Americans completely misjudged the situation and their own capabilities. Scott Ritter, who painted a bleak picture in his last article for us – “War against Iran” – and Larry Johnson were right. The Americans have lost touch with reality. The war is here.

Simon Hunt introduced me with a highly educated man, a successful Indian investor who lives with his family in Dubai. I told him that if war broke out, the Iranians would attack all American military installations in the Middle East—including those in the Emirates, Dubai, and elsewhere. He couldn't believe it. I gained this conviction through exchanges with Professor Mohammad Marandi, a charming professor from Tehran who has deeply internalized the American mentality. Born in Richmond, Virginia, he moved to Iran at the age of 13 and served as a young man in the Iran-Iraq War. In that war, he lost nearly all of his comrades in his unit, was seriously wounded himself, and now teaches Persian literature in Tehran. He made me convinced that another attack on Iran would lead to a regional war. Since Saturday morning, this has now become a reality.

A few days ago, on my way back from Switzerland, I met up with my family in Dubai; Masha had a few things to take care of here, and we thought it would be nice to spend some time together.

When the war began on Saturday morning, there was no sign of it. Music was playing loudly in our beach hotel and people didn't seem to care. And why should they? After all, the war wasn't taking place in Dubai, but in Iran and Israel. Typical human behavior. “It's not my problem, the misery is far away, the music keeps playing.”

The Americans and Israelis were already celebrating after just a few hours. Once again, both had carried out a decapitation strike against the leadership in Iran. As in June 2025, the Americans lulled the Iranians into a false sense of security with negotiations that they had intended to continue on Monday, only to attack the Iranians while the negotiations were still ongoing. It is therefore fair to say that when the Americans negotiate, it is a sign that they will attack you from behind. Negotiating with the Americans is deadly, and therein lies the problem for the future. See my article “Diplomacy on its deathbed – from peace president to warmonger.”

This morning it became a reality – the head of state and supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the first strike against Iran. The Israelis and Americans are firmly convinced that they have destroyed Iran and that a few days of bombing will be enough to achieve their goal of “regime change.” That will not happen.

The first shift in mood in Dubai came on Saturday afternoon—Dubai Airport was closed. On Flight Radar, you could see how air traffic came to a standstill. So it looks like the trip home on Monday is off. Masha's son and his friend were delighted—no school!

Smart people learn from past mistakes. During last summer's 12-day war, the Iranians showed that they are capable of defending themselves and dealt Israel a complete defeat – that is the reality. The fact that the Western media had to bend over backwards to portray Israel as the “victor” does not make things better, but worse. After the Israelis' outcry, the Iranians unfortunately gave in – also on the word and belief of the US. Now, a good six months later, the Americans believe they have made enough improvements to win the war. Practically everything speaks against this. For all that the Americans have achieved with the 12-day war in June last year and the brutal and extremely bloody Maidan-style unrest instigated together with Israel and Great Britain at the beginning of 2026 is that the Iranians are standing together as never before in the last 47 years. Here is a brief look at the rallies in Iran – discontent with the government or even protest against it looks different.

Late yesterday afternoon, explosions were heard in Dubai. There was talk of a CIA site being attacked. There was also some damage from falling debris from downed missiles and drones. There was no sign of a direct attack on downtown Dubai. Masha and I didn't let it spoil our Saturday evening and went to our favorite restaurant in Dubai – Alici. When we arrived, the restaurant manager informed us that all reservations had been canceled by the guests—except for the Russians. After people had been partying in the afternoon, everyone was now afraid to leave their homes—except for the Russians. It was a great gathering; none of them could understand the panic, and neither could we. 

Since we didn't want to spend the night staring at our phones, we went to bed early. A good night's sleep is the best remedy in times of uncertainty. However, this strategy was ruined by the hotel management. At around two in the morning, the sirens went off—we had to gather in the hotel lobby immediately. A few minutes later, sleep-deprived faces gathered there. Guests were advised to spend the night in the underground parking garage. A grotesque suggestion – we were far away from American military bases. Back in our room, we slept the sleep of the righteous, and at breakfast the next morning, it was easy to tell who had slept in bed and who had slept in the parking garage – the Russians looked well-rested.

I have no idea how and when we will be able to leave again, but we have a simple rule for extraordinary situations: if you cannot change a situation through your own actions, you should come to terms with it and make the best of it—and that is what we are doing.

Now you are probably wondering what conclusion I will draw, what conclusions can be drawn today. The short answer: none. If the US and Israel cannot bring down Iran's spiritual and secular leadership with their attacks, they have already lost. In my opinion, there will be no fall of the Iranian government; rather, the 12-day war, the Maidan-style unrest at the beginning of the year, and the attack on February 28, 2026, have united the people. What drives both aggressors – the US and Israel – to attack a girls' school, resulting in the deaths of over 100 young girls, remains a mystery to any sane person. It is permissible, indeed necessary, to rightly describe the Israeli and American political and military leadership responsible for this as psychopaths.

The Iranians will have won when they can live in peace, free, without sanctions and without being labeled terrorists by Zionist terrorists. That will only be the case when the biggest terrorist in the Middle East has been eliminated: Israel, or rather the Zionist leadership of the country. It is unlikely that the Iranians will back down. Any concession by Trump would be political suicide – it would almost certainly cost him the midterm elections in November. If he does not concede and Iran remains steadfast, then the same will probably be true.

It would be inappropriate to describe the situation as interesting, because those involved will be wading through knee-deep blood. There is also a real danger of escalation far beyond West Asia. This war is not only directed against Iran. It is the first war of the declining West against BRICS (see my series “The war between two worlds has begun”). In addition to the hot war against Iran, the confrontation with BRICS is being waged by all means and at all levels. The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 27, 2026, speaks volumes and is likely to raise a lot of questions outside the West, not necessarily to India's advantage. And BRICS?